At BaroneBlog, Michael says the GOP is facing a major geographical shift, potentially, if they nominate Rudy or McCain,
In effect, if the Republicans nominate Giuliani or McCain, they would be trading southern-accented voters (as far north as rural Missouri and the Ohio, Indiana, and Illinois counties just north of the Ohio River) for northern-accented voters, with Giuliani particularly strong with New York-accented voters and McCain with New England-accented voters. The Electoral College map would look more like that of 1988 or even 1976 than that of 1996, 2000, and 2004. But I emphasize here that I have used the weasel words suggest and if. These numbers aren’t etched in stone. They mean a lot more than the numbers you see on Mitt Romney, Tom Vilsack, or even John Edwards today, who are not known in depth by most voters.
Andrew Sullivan, to his credit, called it on the day after the election,
The obvious result of last night’s returns is the complete historical and geographical inversion of what was once the Republican Party. Nixon’s cynical Southern strategy has now been played out to the nth degree – and, after a good period of opportunistic success, it has failed.
Blogger Patrick Ruffini, reviewed Kevin Phillips 1969 classic, The Emerging Republican Majority, over at Amazon,
The Emerging Republican Majority remains the most concise and dependable guide to historical voting trends in the United States in the 20th century. The book itself is notorious for urging that Republicans pursue a “Southern strategy” and abandon the liberal establishmentarian constituencies in the northeast that had previously held sway over the party, but its real value is in the rich historical background Phillips provides.
It is ironic that it happened on Karl Rove’s watch. He was the new millennium’s Lee Atwater. Rove ran circles against the competition. I know, the competition was Bob Strum, but still. I really don’t think Rove, or the Southern Strategy itself, is to blame. Iraq overrides everything. The voter discontent over Iraq is bigger than any regional strategy, no matter how successful.
Thirty seven years is a pretty good run, if it is indeed, over.